PM to explain things in Beijing

Written by Writer on Thursday, October 23rd, 2008

ACHARA ASHAYAGACHAT
Bangkok Post
Thursday October 23, 2008

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat brings with him heavy luggage when he lands in Beijing today for the 7th summit of the Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem).

The Oct 23-25 visit to Beijing is Mr Somchai’s first foreign trip since he was chosen Thailand’s 26th prime minister 35 days ago by 298 votes against 198 in parliament.

Traditional courtesy calls to leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), earlier scheduled for last week, were cancelled due to political turbulence at home amid rumours of a possible coup against his administration.

Mr Somchai is perhaps the only Asean leader who might not make that protocol trip to Asean after all - as he is also tangled in possible court cases at home and his government is in a losing battle with the street demonstrations led by the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which has occupied Government House since Aug 26.

Although Mr Somchai’s alleged wrongdoing in connection with a land auction case was ruled “an act of carelessness” by the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC), and a lawsuit filed by Senator Ruangkrai Leekijwattana in the Constitution Court challenging his qualifications to become premier has yet to be decided, his image on the international stage is already tainted.

The situation regarding his beleaguered government has raised concern not only within Asean but also among friends from Europe and East Asia - they wonder whether he will still be around when Bangkok is scheduled to host the 14th Asean Summit in December, when the Asean Charter will officially take effect. The 61-year-old Mr Somchai, who is a brother-in-law of convicted ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, must have adequate and convincing explanations ready for his foreign counterparts in Beijing.

Mr Somchai is scheduled to hold talks with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, with whom he has cultivated good relations thanks to the Thaksin connection. He will also have a bilateral meeting with Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, besides confirmed meetings with leaders from the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia as well as a protocol meeting with the host, China.

In Beijing, Mr Somchai has with him Deputy PM Olarn Chaipravat (Finance Minister Suchart Thada-Thamrongvech will not attend the meeting) to discuss with the other 44 Asem members (27 EU members, nine Asean countries, China, Japan, South Korea and new members India, Pakistan, Mongolia, Romania and Bulgaria) plus two organisations - the European Commission and the Asean Secretariat - issues regarding the looming impact of the global financial crisis.

The Thai premier also has with him Foreign Minister Sompong Amornvivat for discussions relating to Asean and Cambodian issues.

(It is interesting that Mr Somchai believes the military top brass back home will not stage a coup against his administration, though they have been calling on him to quit the post for the sake of national reconciliation.)

Mr Somchai believes the general sentiment overseas is still supportive of his elected government. He only needs to convince the world that the PAD-led battle against him has no legal validity and that he has to stay on to carry the torch of democracy. Of course he has street movements such as the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship cheering him on. Jakrapob Penkair, former minister of the PM’s Office from the previous Samak administration, has been acting as his de facto spokesman for the foreign community. If things work out in favour of his government, Mr Somchai thinks he will need two more months before clearing the exit runway.

The premier has even told his men to find a contingency venue for the Asean summit, as Bangkok might not be safe for dignitaries should things turn ugly against his government. He is thinking of Chiang Mai - a key base of the ruling People Power party and political stronghold of his wife who is Thaksin’s younger sister - as a possible venue for the Asean summit in mid-December.

But we may have to weigh his performance on the international front according to his success in achieving guarantees from Hun Sen that the latter will not behave unpredictably against Thailand on border issues. It would certainly help smooth Thai-Cambodian interaction if parliament were to quickly endorse the provisional arrangement agreed on by former foreign minister Tej Bunnag and his Cambodian counterpart Hor Namhong in Cha-am two months ago, so that experts could proceed with boundary talks. In the meantime, the flashpoint at Phu Makhua may need the regional border commission, which is meeting today in Siem Reap, to ease tensions.

Until parliament endorses the provisional arrangement, hopefully by next week, so that foreign ministry officials can negotiate with Cambodia properly, possible border or verbal conflicts with Cambodia cannot be ruled out. In which case the joint boundary commission, the proper channel to address sensitive matters, would not be able to function.