ICG: Instability may bring coup
Written by changthai11 on Wednesday, September 24th, 2008
ICG: Instability may bring coup
Protests, instability could bring new Thai coup: think tank
Ongoing anti-government protests and political instability threaten peace and democracy in Thailand and could usher in another military coup, according to a leading European think-tank.
”The replacement of Samak Sundaravej with Somchai Wongsawat as prime minister is unlikely to defuse tensions,” the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) said in its latest assessment.
”Every day the
[political] standoff continues, political divisions become more intractable _ and another coup becomes more likely,” the statement said.
”Overthrowing the elected government _ either by a coup or by street demonstrations _ would be a severe blow to Thailand’s democracy”, Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat, ICG’s Thailand analyst, said. ”It will do nothing to resolve the deep political polarisation that is tearing Thailand apart.”
The crisis in Bangkok was crippling the economy, diverting attention from key issues such as the insurgency in the South and undermining Thailand’s chairmanship of Asean, the ICG said.
”The first priority is to restore the rule of law and the authority of the elected government, not because it is perfect, but for the sake of Thailand’s stability and democracy.
”Senior figures should stop sending mixed messages and make clear their backing for the government and the rule of law. The PAD should end their illegal occupation of Government House, and army leaders should negotiate with them to ensure this happens.
”Negotiations should be backed by graduated steps by the police short of force, drawing on a range of siege management techniques.”
The report said complaints of government incompetence or malpractice can and should be pursued through democratic and constitutional means.
”The PAD’s proposals for a new politics, essentially a reversion to government by the elite with only 30% of parliamentarians elected, is profoundly anti-democratic and a recipe for dictatorship.”
The constitution imposed by the military government last year gave the courts and bureaucracy too much power to thwart and undermine an elected government for relatively minor failings.
”Samak has already been disqualified from office for an offence which in most countries would be regarded as trivial, and the future of the PPP-led government is under nearly as much threat in the courts as from the streets,” it said.
It recommends a consultative and inclusive process to amend the constitution with the aim of finding a balance between giving the executive sufficient power to govern and ensuring effective checks and balances.
”The international community, including Thailand’s Asean partners, should make clear to all parts of the Thai elite that another coup would meet with international condemnation.”
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