Momentum builds for putting off dissolution
Written by Writer on Tuesday, October 28th, 2008
Momentum builds for putting off dissolution
Hidetoshi Ikebe and Hajime Furukawa / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers
The global credit crunch is forcing Prime Minister Taro Aso to rethink his strategy for dissolving the House of Representatives and calling a general election.
An increasing number of ruling party members feel the prime minister will abandon his earlier plan to dissolve the lower house at the end of this month and call a general election for Nov. 30, putting the election timetable on the back burner.
But even if the dissolution is postponed, the prime minister likely will face a thorny future.
On Sunday afternoon, Aso delivered a street speech in Tokyo’s Akihabara district, saying in his opening remarks, “I came here because I decided to deliver my first street speech after becoming the Liberal Democratic Party’s president in Akihabara.”
The LDP said about 13,000 people gathered to hear the speech, and applauded many times throughout.
After the speech, Aso attended an event in the area aimed at promoting pop culture and went on a talk show to discuss manga and other elements of Japan’s so-called soft power, together with cartoonists Takao Saito and Kenshi Hirokane. During the event, Aso enthusiastically talked about his passion for manga.
Aso is known to be well versed in manga, anime and other aspects of pop culture favored by enthusiasts dubbed otaku.
His popularity with the public began to rise after he delivered a street speech in Akihabara during the LDP’s leadership race in 2006, and Aso’s personality fits Akihabara, the center of otaku culture.
However, unlike his speech back then, Sunday’s speech required a different tone.
Aso initially planned to dissolve the lower house on Monday. The street speech at his favorite place originally was supposed to mark the start of a nationwide election campaign that would have began prior to the dissolution of the lower house.
But this changed as the financial crisis triggered in the United States began to spread.
Some economists say the turning point came on Oct. 16, when stock prices in New York, which many thought were nearing the bottom of their decline, recorded the second biggest one-day percentage drop in history. The financial crisis’ effect on emerging economies began to be felt and fears of a global recession grew.
That evening, Shoichi Nakagawa, finance minister and state minister for financial services, and Yoshihide Suga, deputy chairman of the LDP Election Strategy Council, both close aides to Aso, advised the prime minister to postpone the timing of dissolving the lower house.
With many LDP members seeing the party facing an uphill battle in a general election, Aso began to hesitate about dissolving the lower house anytime soon.
On Nov. 15, a summit meeting will be held in the United States comprising leaders of the Group of Eight major nations and emerging economies. If Aso were to stick to the original election strategy, the summit would occur in the middle of a political vacuum in Japan.
Aso’s aides said this caused him to reconsider the plan. “He [Aso] believes Japan, which has been not as hard-hit [as other economies] in the global financial crisis, should play a leading role,” one aide said.
In Sunday’s speech, Aso said, “Surely the country with the most expectations on it from the world is Japan.”
The government was set to announce measures to stabilize financial markets Monday, and a new economic stimulus package that includes action for small and midsize companies and a tax cut on Thursday.
Though Naoto Kan, acting president of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, said the entire package cannot be implemented in a month, many politicians say the planned market stabilization actions will be a quick test of the government’s leadership.
Amid all this, many ruling party members predict that Aso will announce a postponement of the dissolution of the lower house at a press conference to announce the new economic package on Thursday.
LDP Acting Secretary General Nobuteru Ishihara said on an NHK news program Sunday: “Movements in stock markets and exchange rates this week are important. If [stock prices] see new record lows and fall further, we can’t consider an election. The prime minister will decide [whether to dissolve the lower house].”
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New Komeito not pleased
Even if the timing of dissolving the lower house is delayed, Aso will face tough days ahead.
New Komeito, the LDP’s coalition partner, places great importance on next summer’s Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election and hopes that the period between the local election and a general election will be as long as possible.
Soka Gakkai, the lay Buddhist organization that is the main supporter of New Komeito, has already made preparations for a Nov. 30 lower house election and cannot easily change its plans, political observers said.
New Komeito Chief Representative Akihiro Ota said in a street speech in Yokohama on Sunday, “A lower house election is just around the corner.”
Many senior New Komeito members also have put pressure on the LDP by saying that if the LDP delays the election date, the party should not expect much cooperation from New Komeito in an election.
Aiming to make it easier for Aso to dissolve the lower house soon, the DPJ has cooperated in passing bills from the ruling parties, such as a draft of the fiscal 2008 extra budget and a bill to revise the new antiterrorism law.
But the DPJ will change its attitude if Aso postpones the general election.
The largest opposition party has already shown moves to prolong Diet deliberations on a bill to create a law for strengthening financial functions.
A political observer said the Aso Cabinet “may follow the same steps” as those of the administrations of former prime ministers Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda.
A mountain of tasks face the Aso administration, including drafting next fiscal year’s budget before and after the new year, and taxation reform for securing funds to finance raised state burdens to maintain basic public pensions.
Some in the ruling camp criticized Aso’s pledge to create a timeline of tax reforms, including raising the consumption tax rate. One ruling party member said, “The political tasks toward the year-end can’t be handled unless we get the judgment of voters.”
Though Aso has remarked he would dissolve the lower house “at the most suitable time,” deciding on when this time should be will be difficult if the plan to hold the general election on Nov. 30 is postponed.
One of Aso’s aides predicted that the lower house would be dissolved at the year-end, after the fiscal 2009 budget is drafted and a general election held in January. But a political observer has said such a schedule would adversely affect budget deliberations and the government would have to compile a stopgap budget.
If this happens, Aso’s image as being a tough economic manager will be damaged.
If Aso dissolves the lower house in or after next spring after passing the fiscal 2009 budget, the general election could be delayed to May or June as the government will have to wait for passage of budget-related bills.
This would push a general election closer to the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, which would likely upset New Komeito.
(Oct. 28, 2008)
